Spain vs France Predictions, Picks & Best Odds for Euro Semifinal

Dec 1, 2022; Doha, Qatar; Spain midfielder Pedri (26) reaches for the ball against Japan during the second half of a group stage match during the 2022 World Cup at Khalifa International Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Yukihito Taguchi-USA TODAY SportsSpain are slight favorites over France in the 2024 Euro semifinals on TuesdaySpain will be without star midfielder Pedri plus half of its starting backlineSee Spain vs France predictions, expert picks, and the best odds available less than 24 hours before kickoff

A matchup worthy of the Euro 2024 final will instead take place in the first semi on Tuesday when Spain (4-1-0) meet France (2-3-0) at Allianz Arena in Munich at 3:00 pm ET.

After winning their first four games of the tournament in regular time, Spain were forced to extra time by host Germany in the quarterfinals, where Mikel Merino played the hero with the winner in the 119th minute (2-1 AET).

France failed to score over 120 minutes of regular time and extra time against Portugal, but blasted five nearly unstoppable penalty kicks past Diogo Costa en route to a 0-0 (5-3) shootout victory.

Spain has undoubtedly looked like the better of the two teams so far in the tournament, but with at least a trio of starters out of the lineup, they are only slight favorites to advance to the Euro 2024 final.

Spain vs France Predictions & Expert Picks

France to advance to the final (+100 at bet365)First half under 0.5 goals (+136 at FanDuel)

Sascha Paruk’s 2024 Euro/Copa America betting record: 35-17-1 (+20.93 units).All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.

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I expect the script for Spain vs France to look similar to France’s 0-0 stalemate with Portugal. Kylian Mbappe is obviously much less than 100% and the French attack has been uncharacteristically anemic as a result. As every news outlet has reported, no French player has scored a goal from open play in the tournament. France got a penalty from Mbappe in their 1-1 draw with Poland and their other two goals (during 1-0 wins over Austria and Belgium) were both own goals off opposition defenders.

France’s defense, however, has been phenomenal. They held their opposition to just 2.18 xGA in the group stage, and (0.79 of that came from a borderline penalty call against Poland). In the round of 16, they conceded just 0.26 xGA to Belgium. Portugal were able to generate some quality scoring chances in the second half of their quarterfinal clash with France, but still finished with 0.99 xGF over the first 90 minutes.

Spain have a brilliant attack, but with midfield maestro Pedri injured, and center back Robin Le Normand and right back Dani Carvajal suspended, I expect them to play a more conservative style against France.  The players they’re bringing into the lineup aren’t much of a step down (Nacho Fernandez should take over Le Normand’s role in central defense, while Dani Olmo replaces Pedri, and  either Jesus Navas or Alejandro Grimaldo subs in for Carvajal) but it’s still a less cohesive lineup being thrust into a crucible. “Caution” will be the watchword for coach Luis de la Fuente.

Best Spain vs France Odds

The opening Spain vs France odds listed Spain at +180 to win in regular time with both a France victory and a full-time draw at +187. Most books have since shifted the odds slightly in Spain’s favor. The longest odds on a Spain regular-time win are +175 at DraftKings and bet365. The best price on a France win in regular time (+214) and a full-time draw (+194) are also at bet365.

The game-total prices have generally moved in favor of the under. The opening odds had over 2.5 goals at +162 with under 2.5 at -200. The best under price is still -200 while the over odds are as long as +170 at DraftKings.

Some books have established 1.5 O/U as the default total.

The longest odds on Spain qualifying for the final can be found at FanDuel where La Roja are -120. The best odds on France advancing are +100 at both DraftKings and bet365.

The winner of Spain vs France will face the winner of Wednesday’s England vs Netherlands match at Signal Iduna Park in Dortmund. The current Euro 2024 title odds show Spain (+191) as the outright favorite, followed by England (+246), France (+274), and the Netherlands (+450).

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