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NFL Betting: The Miami Dolphins Go from Big Underdogs to Big Favorites

NFL Betting: The Miami Dolphins Go from Big Underdogs to Big Favorites

October 17, 2020 – by Jason Lisk

Week 3 Waiver Wire

Myles Gaskin and the Miami Dolphins are suddenly in the favorite’s role (Photo by Joshua Sarner/Icon Sportswire)

The Miami Dolphins are coming off a big 43-17 road win at San Francisco, and turn around this week and are a heavy favorite against the 0-5 New York Jets. Miami’s role reversal to a big favorite is particularly notable because they haven’t even been favored in a game since December of 2018 (when current Jets coach Adam Gase was still the coach in Miami).

So you might wonder how the Dolphins will handle this change in expectations. Will they have a let down now that they are expected to win? Is the victory over San Francisco the sign of a resurgence in South Beach?

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History of Big Swings from Underdog to Favorite

To see how other teams have done when making big week-to-week swings in the type of opponents, we looked at all games since 2000 where:

the team was favored by 7.5 or more points in the week in question; andhad been an underdog of 7.5 or more points in the previous week.

As it turns out, it’s pretty rare for this to happen. It has only occurred 26 other times in the last 20 years. Here’s the list in reverse chronological order.

Year Team Week N-1 Spread N Spread Week N Margin ATS Result
2019 DEN 16 10 -9.5 10 W
2019 CAR 13 10 -10.5 -8 L
2019 ATL 16 10.5 -7.5 12 W
2018 NYG 17 10 -7.5 -1 L
2018 LAC 4 7.5 -10.5 2 L
2016 CIN 7 7.5 -11.5 14 W
2014 DET 13 7.5 -7.5 17 W
2013 SD 16 10 -10 13 W
2013 IND 17 7.5 -11 20 W
2013 IND 4 10.5 -9.5 34 W
2012 TB 14 9.5 -8 -2 L
2012 MIA 15 10.5 -7.5 21 W
2009 SEA 9 10 -11 12 W
2009 PIT 13 9 -14.5 -3 L
2009 MIA 10 10.5 -10 2 L
2009 CHI 13 10 -9.5 8 L
2009 CAR 17 9 -10 13 W
2009 BUF 17 9 -9 23 W
2009 ATL 9 11 -9 14 W
2009 ARI 8 9 -10 -13 L
2008 DEN 14 7.5 -9 7 L
2006 NO 15 7.5 -10 -6 L
2006 JAC 9 7.5 -9.5 30 W
2005 JAC 15 7.5 -14.5 1 L
2004 MIA 16 9 -7.5 3 L
2004 IND 18 7.5 -8.5 25 W

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