NFL Week 4 Rankings + Projections Update: Bills Show Life, Chiefs Rise

NFL Week 4 Rankings + Projections Update: Bills Show Life, Chiefs Rise

September 26, 2018 – by Seth Trachtman

In this post we highlight our biggest NFL Week 4 rankings and predictions changes, after a week that featured the biggest upset since 1995 in terms of closing point spread, Bills over Vikings.

Want to maximize your edge in pools and betting this week? Our NFL survivor picks, NFL pick’em pool picks, and NFL betting picks are all posted for NFL Week 4.

NFL Week 4 Rankings Updates

Here are biggest increases in team predictive rating heading into Week 4. Our predictive ratings are measured in points, with a 0.0 rating equivalent to a “perfectly average” team:

Team	Division	Old Rank	New Rank	Old Rating	New Rating	Rating Change
Buffalo	AFC East	32	31	-9.6	-6.1	3.5
Kansas City	AFC West	11	3	1.9	3.5	1.6
Detroit	NFC North	30	29	-4.1	-2.7	1.4
Seattle	NFC West	19	17	-1.1	-0.1	1.0
Washington	NFC East	17	14	-0.4	0.5	0.9

Buffalo continued its improving trend after getting crushed by the Ravens in Week 1, registering a shocking 27-6 road win over the Vikings. The Bills were 16.5-point underdogs in Vegas and 17-point underdogs according to our predictive ratings.

The Chiefs are one of three remaining undefeated teams, and had the second biggest rating increase of the week. However, part of that increase resulted from a rare manual “fudge” we made (of 1.3 points) to adjust for QB Patrick Mahomes’ stronger-than-expected performance so far. On account of some clustering of teams, Kansas City’s ranking jumped a whopping 8 sports, from No. 11 to No. 3.

Detroit also had an unexpected big win vs. New England, as ex-Patriots defensive coordinator Matt Patricia got the best of his former team with a 26-10 win, despite being about 6-point underdogs based on last week’s ratings.

See where every team currently stands in our NFL rankings.

NFL Week 4 Projected Wins Updates

Here are the top gainers in projected total wins for the 2018 season heading into Week 4:

Team	Division	Old Proj Wins	New Proj Wins	Proj Wins Change
Buffalo	AFC East	3.6	5.6	2.0
Detroit	NFC North	5.3	6.6	1.3
Seattle	NFC West	6.6	7.7	1.1
Kansas City	AFC West	9.9	10.9	1.0
New Orleans	NFC South	8.1	9.0	0.9

The aforementioned Bills found at least some hope after being outscored 78-23 in the first two games of the season. They’re still well out of the playoff picture but did have a solid 2-expected-win increase (with +0.9 expected wins coming from the Vikings upset).

Seattle inched closer to the playoff picture after beating Dallas at home relatively easily, 24-13. However, the team’s streak of six straight winning seasons remains at risk after a 1-2 start to the season.

See our latest projected season win totals for all teams on our NFL projections.

NFL Week 4 Division Winner Odds Updates

The following teams increased their odds to win their division the most last week:

Team	Division	Old Div Win Odds	New Div Win Odds	Odds Change
Miami	AFC East	24.7%	42.7%	18.0%
Tennessee	AFC South	15.5%	33.1%	17.6%
Kansas City	AFC West	54.0%	71.1%	17.1%
Chicago	NFC North	13.6%	29.1%	15.5%
New Orleans	NFC South	19.1%	33.4%	14.3%

Miami’s win against the Raiders, along with losses by the Patriots and Jets, jolted their playoff odds upward. The Dolphins are now 3-0, with an extremely important game at New England in Week 4.

With almost no passing to speak of between Blaine Gabbert’s concussion and Marcus Mariota’s injured elbow, the Titans pulled out a 9-6 upset win at the division-leading Jaguars. Tennessee still trails Jacksonville in our division winner projections but has closed the gap.

The Chiefs got another nice boost with their win and a loss by the Chargers. Kansas City now has a chance to take a 2-game lead in the AFC West this week if they can win at Denver.

See our latest division winner odds for all teams on our NFL projections.

NFL Week 4 Playoffs Odds Updates

The following teams increased their odds to make the playoffs the most last week:

Team	Division	Old Playoffs Odds	New Playoffs Odds	Odds Change
New Orleans	NFC South	34.3%	53.8%	19.5%
Tennessee	AFC South	28.2%	45.4%	17.2%
Kansas City	AFC West	68.6%	83.4%	14.8%
Miami	AFC East	43.9%	57.8%	13.9%
Chicago	NFC North	29.8%	42.1%	12.3%

The first two weeks of the season weren’t anything to write home about for the Saints, as they lost to Tampa Bay and barely pulled out a win vs. Cleveland, but they might have made up for it with an overtime victory at Atlanta. The Saints are now tied for the NFC South lead at 2-1 and have the third best odds to make the playoffs of any team in the NFC.

Another NFC team, Chicago, is now 2-1 after gritting out a 16-14 win at now 32nd-ranked Arizona. Three teams in the NFC North now have at least 41 percent odds to make the playoffs, and the Bears lead the division, a half-game ahead of Minnesota and Green Bay.

See our latest odds to make the playoffs for all teams on our NFL projections.

Until Next Week…

Enjoy NFL Week 4, and if you’re in an NFL pool or planning on betting some of the Week 4 games, please check out our premium products: NFL Survivor Picks, Football Pick’em Pool Picks, and NFL Betting Picks.

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