NBA Preseason Predictions 2017-18: Review & Highlights

NBA Preseason Predictions 2017-18: Review & Highlights

October 12, 2017 – by David Hess

The 2017-18 NBA season tips off next Tuesday with two games, including the reigning world champion Warriors hosting the Rockets, and the revamped Celtics against the Isiah Thomas-less Cavs. That means it’s also time for our 2017-18 NBA preseason predictions.

We recently published our preseason NBA predictive rankings and NBA projected standings pages for 2017-18. Those pages will be updated every single day through the end of the season.

This post serves as a snapshot of our preseason projections, plus we’ll briefly discuss some highlights.

Editors Note: You can sign up for algorithmic NBA picks and predictions (game winner, point spread, over/under, and money line) for all 2017-18 games on our signup page.

2017-18 NBA Preseason Predictions & Projected Standings

Below are our NBA season projections as of Thursday, October 12, 2017.

As they do every season, player injuries, suspensions and other unexpected events that occur as the season goes on are likely to derail at least a few of these initial forecasts. That’s an inevitable risk of trying to predict the distant future. It’s also part of the reason why we incorporate variance into our season simulations.

Also, note that the numbers in this post may change a little bit from day to day before the season actually starts. That’s not us adjusting numbers behind the scenes. It’s just variance in the results of the season simulations, which we re-run daily.

Eastern Conference Predictions and Projected Standings For 2017-18

Eastern Conference Projections 2017-18
ATLANTIC	W	L	Playoffs	Win Div	Top Seed	NBA Champs
Boston	50.8	31.2	91.8%	56.0%	19.4%	3.7%
Toronto	46.9	35.1	84.4%	34.2%	10.3%	1.8%
Philadelphia	36.9	45.1	45.9%	7.3%	1.2%	0.2%
New York	29.9	52.1	18.7%	1.5%	0.2%	0.0%
Brooklyn	27.4	54.6	12.7%	1.0%	0.1%	0.0%
CENTRAL	W	L	Playoffs	Win Div	Top Seed	NBA Champs
Cleveland	54.4	27.6	96.7%	73.6%	34.3%	7.5%
Milwaukee	43.6	38.4	73.8%	17.5%	5.5%	1.0%
Detroit	36.7	45.3	45.4%	5.3%	1.1%	0.2%
Indiana	33.9	48.1	33.0%	3.2%	0.5%	0.1%
Chicago	26.2	55.8	10.1%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%
SOUTHEAST	W	L	Playoffs	Win Div	Top Seed	NBA Champs
Washington	49.1	32.9	88.5%	46.9%	15.2%	3.2%
Charlotte	44.5	37.5	76.3%	25.1%	6.1%	1.1%
Miami	43.8	38.2	74.5%	23.1%	5.3%	0.8%
Orlando	33.4	48.6	30.7%	3.7%	0.5%	0.1%
Atlanta	29.4	52.6	17.5%	1.2%	0.2%	0.0%

Most Likely Division Winners: Cleveland (74%), Boston (56%), Washington (47%)

Best NBA Championship Win Odds: While we project the Cavs as twice as likely as any other Eastern Conference team to win the title, they still only have a 7.5% chance. That’s the second highest of any team in the NBA, but Golden State is so good that every other team has a slim chance by comparison.

It’s worth noting that our championship odds for Cleveland are below the odds implied by leading sportsbooks, which currently have the Cavs at +444 payout odds to win it all — roughly 18%. Those implied odds are inflated by the “vig” (bookmaker’s commission), so the “true” implied championship odds are lower than 18%. Still, our champion odds for Cleveland are almost certainly more pessimistic.

Part (but not all) of the reason for this is the “shortened playoff rotations” factor. A top-heavy, superstar-carried team like Cleveland clearly benefits from having an offensive focal point like LeBron James play a greater percentage of minutes in the playoffs, compared to the regular season. Our models, however, prioritize a more accurate projection of the regular season over accurate championship odds. As a result, they currently understate the impact of shorter playoff rotations.

In addition, out model spreads the effects of Isiah Thomas’s injury out over the whole season, while the betting markets (more correctly) penalize the Cavs earlier, but assume they’ll be better come playoff time.

Both of these are things we plan to improve in the future from an analytical standpoint.

Expected To Improve: For the second year in a row, the 76ers are projected with the biggest improvement in the East. Last season, we projected they’d increase from 10 to 25 wins. They ended up with 28. This season we’re project a more modest improvement from 28 to 37 wins. But in the East, 37 wins should put you on the cusp of the playoffs. It’s possible The Process may propel  Philadelphia into The Playoffs this season.

Biggest Loser: Chicago has jettisoned Jimmy Butler, along with most of their hope for the near future. We project them dropping from 41 to 26 wins.

Western Conference Predictions and Projected Standings for 2017-18

Western Conference Projections 2017-18
NORTHWEST	W	L	Playoffs	Win Div	Top Seed	NBA Champs
Okla City	50.9	31.1	85.7%	42.0%	3.5%	3.1%
Minnesota	46.8	35.2	72.7%	23.4%	1.4%	1.3%
Denver	44.3	37.7	64.0%	16.2%	0.8%	0.8%
Portland	41.1	40.9	50.3%	9.7%	0.3%	0.4%
Utah	40.5	41.5	47.7%	8.7%	0.2%	0.3%
PACIFIC	W	L	Playoffs	Win Div	Top Seed	NBA Champs
Golden State	68.1	13.9	100.0%	95.6%	75.2%	58.5%
LA Clippers	48.4	33.6	79.1%	4.2%	1.9%	1.9%
LA Lakers	30.5	51.5	12.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Phoenix	27.0	55.0	5.9%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
Sacramento	26.9	55.1	5.6%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
SOUTHWEST	W	L	Playoffs	Win Div	Top Seed	NBA Champs
Houston	55.4	26.6	94.0%	50.0%	8.7%	7.3%
San Antonio	54.4	27.6	92.7%	43.2%	7.4%	6.3%
New Orleans	40.3	41.7	45.5%	4.2%	0.3%	0.3%
Memphis	35.4	46.6	26.6%	1.7%	0.1%	0.1%
Dallas	33.1	48.9	18.3%	0.8%	0.0%	0.0%

Most Likely Division Winners: Golden State (96%), Houston (50%), Oklahoma City (42%).

Clippers/Lakers/Suns/Kings:

Best NBA Championship Win Odds: Last year we gave the Warriors roughly a 52% chance town the title, before the season started. This year, that’s up to 59%. If they are healthy come playoff time, they’ll be the overwhelming favorites.

Expected To Improve: Remember that Jimmy Butler guy we mentioned in the Eastern Conference section? He’s on the Wolves now. And it’s not a coincidence that they’re the team we project to improve the most from last season, from 31 wins all the way up to 47.

Biggest Loser: The Kings and the Suns both suffer from the major disadvantage of being in the same division as Golden State (and therefore having to play them more times). Both are projected to win only 27 games.

Wrapping Up…

Enjoy the 2017-18 NBA season, and remember, plenty of these projections will end up being wrong, for lots of possible reasons. Our goal is the overall accuracy of the system, and even if the system as a whole ends up being more accurate than lots of other prediction methods, the projections for any one specific team could still be way off.

The value we bring to the table is a sophisticated, systematic model that can precisely evaluate dynamics that human experts are generally terrible at understanding — stuff like the likely impacts of schedule strength, or the chance that a star player breaks his hand a month into the season. Our system is driven by objective data that has demonstrated predictive value, and not by subjective opinions.

If you liked this post, please share it. Thank you! Twitter Facebook