NFL Betting: The Miami Dolphins Go from Big Underdogs to Big Favorites
October 17, 2020 – by Jason Lisk
Myles Gaskin and the Miami Dolphins are suddenly in the favorite’s role (Photo by Joshua Sarner/Icon Sportswire)
The Miami Dolphins are coming off a big 43-17 road win at San Francisco, and turn around this week and are a heavy favorite against the 0-5 New York Jets. Miami’s role reversal to a big favorite is particularly notable because they haven’t even been favored in a game since December of 2018 (when current Jets coach Adam Gase was still the coach in Miami).
So you might wonder how the Dolphins will handle this change in expectations. Will they have a let down now that they are expected to win? Is the victory over San Francisco the sign of a resurgence in South Beach?
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History of Big Swings from Underdog to Favorite
To see how other teams have done when making big week-to-week swings in the type of opponents, we looked at all games since 2000 where:
the team was favored by 7.5 or more points in the week in question; andhad been an underdog of 7.5 or more points in the previous week.
As it turns out, it’s pretty rare for this to happen. It has only occurred 26 other times in the last 20 years. Here’s the list in reverse chronological order.
| Year | Team | Week | N-1 Spread | N Spread | Week N Margin | ATS Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | DEN | 16 | 10 | -9.5 | 10 | W |
| 2019 | CAR | 13 | 10 | -10.5 | -8 | L |
| 2019 | ATL | 16 | 10.5 | -7.5 | 12 | W |
| 2018 | NYG | 17 | 10 | -7.5 | -1 | L |
| 2018 | LAC | 4 | 7.5 | -10.5 | 2 | L |
| 2016 | CIN | 7 | 7.5 | -11.5 | 14 | W |
| 2014 | DET | 13 | 7.5 | -7.5 | 17 | W |
| 2013 | SD | 16 | 10 | -10 | 13 | W |
| 2013 | IND | 17 | 7.5 | -11 | 20 | W |
| 2013 | IND | 4 | 10.5 | -9.5 | 34 | W |
| 2012 | TB | 14 | 9.5 | -8 | -2 | L |
| 2012 | MIA | 15 | 10.5 | -7.5 | 21 | W |
| 2009 | SEA | 9 | 10 | -11 | 12 | W |
| 2009 | PIT | 13 | 9 | -14.5 | -3 | L |
| 2009 | MIA | 10 | 10.5 | -10 | 2 | L |
| 2009 | CHI | 13 | 10 | -9.5 | 8 | L |
| 2009 | CAR | 17 | 9 | -10 | 13 | W |
| 2009 | BUF | 17 | 9 | -9 | 23 | W |
| 2009 | ATL | 9 | 11 | -9 | 14 | W |
| 2009 | ARI | 8 | 9 | -10 | -13 | L |
| 2008 | DEN | 14 | 7.5 | -9 | 7 | L |
| 2006 | NO | 15 | 7.5 | -10 | -6 | L |
| 2006 | JAC | 9 | 7.5 | -9.5 | 30 | W |
| 2005 | JAC | 15 | 7.5 | -14.5 | 1 | L |
| 2004 | MIA | 16 | 9 | -7.5 | 3 | L |
| 2004 | IND | 18 | 7.5 | -8.5 | 25 | W |
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