The injured and out of form world number 3 is no value in Brazil this week…
When betting on tennis an unwritten rule usually applies; don’t back against Rafael Nadal on clay. With 318 victories, 45 titles, and a career winning index of 93% on this surface, his legacy is untouched.
Under normal circumstances Rafa would normally routine a 500 event on the red dirt. Things feel a little different this year however, and there are far too many doubts surrounding the Spaniard to justify backing him at odds on.
Nadal has suffered a terrible start to the year, embarrassingly losing to world number 150 Michael Berrer, before being battered around the courts by all of his lower ranked opponents in Australia. A straight sets pounding at the hands of Tomas Berdych perfectly rounded off a miserable tournament for the Spanish number one. These events come on the back of an injury plagued 2014 season, in which Rafa struggled to find form or confidence on any surface.
He failed to win in Vina Del Mar two years ago on his comeback from a serious injury, losing to little known Horacio Zeballos, and a defeat to any of the players occupying this year’s Rio field shouldn’t come as too much of a shock.
He plays talented left hander Thomaz Bellucci in the first round, and this will be far from straight forward. Roared on by a raucous home crowd, Thomaz will be extra motivated for the clash, and the Brazilian will look to use his big game to further unsettle his out of sorts opponent. His price of 6/1 to win is very tempting and worth a small stake.
If Rafa is not to win the tournament then the stand out second favourite is David Ferrer. The Spaniard has made a name for himself by winning tournaments when his higher ranked rivals are not fully fit or competing. After kicking off the season with a great win in Doha, David will be looking to add to his list of 11 clay court titles. At home on the red dirt and bang in form ‘the terrier’ will take some stopping this week and is a tasty price at 3/1.
Reccommended Bets:
Bellucci to beat Nadal – 6/1
Ferrer outright – 3/1
